- Materiały budowlane są bardzo drogie, ale eksperci twierdzą, że teraz jest dobry czas na ich kupowanie, bo za kilka miesięcy będą o 20 proc. droższe lub… w ogóle niedostępne, jeśli zabraknie gazu.
- Niestety zleceniodawcy prac grają w innej drużynie – realizacji prac budowlanych chcą jak najszybciej, płacić chcą za to jak najpóźniej.
- Pod koniec sierpnia w branży budowlanej pojawiają się już faktury z terminem płatności na listopad.
Główny Urząd Statystyczny podał, że inflacja konsumencka w sierpniu wyniosła 16,1 proc. w skali roku. Wszyscy czekali na jej spadek, ta jednak wzrosła. Drożeją niemal wszystkie grupy towarów, dzisiaj płacimy za nie więcej niż kilka miesięcy temu, ale za kilka kolejnych zapłacimy jeszcze więcej niż dzisiaj. To dla większości firm niesie poważne konsekwencje.
Materiały będą droższe lub… nie będzie ich wcale, jeśli zabraknie gazu
Wśród najbardziej dotkniętych branż jest budowlanka. Teoretycznie ceny materiałów budowlanych mogłyby spadać ze względu na zastój w kredytach hipotecznych, które po podwyżkach stóp procentowych są wyjątkowo drogie. Mniej powstających mieszkań, to mniejsza podaż na materiały i spadek ich cen. Niestety na koszty materiałów budowlanych działają też odwrotne trendy podnoszące ich ceny. Przede wszystkim ogromna część kosztów wynika z cen energii oraz logistyki, te koszty w najbliższym czasie nie zmniejszą się. Wg sierpniowego odczytu GUS najszybciej drożały w ciągu roku nośniki energii, czyli prąd, gaz i węgiel (o 40,3 proc.), które mają niebagatelne znaczenie przy produkcji materiałów budowlanych. Na drugi miejscu pod względem wzrostów GUS wymienia paliwa samochodowe (o 23,3 proc.), które też mają w branży budowlanej znaczenie. Długofalowo na wzrost cen materiałów wpływają też obawy o brak gazu. Producenci spodziewają się też, że po zakończeniu wojny na wschodzie ogromny popyt z tego kierunku wessie wszelki możliwe materiały, a ich ceny gwałtownie wzrosną. W budowlance będzie zatem drożej.
– Firmy budowlane, z którymi rozmawiamy, mają jasne stanowisko: musimy jak najszybciej i jak najwięcej kupować na zapas. Jest drogo, ale nikt nie ma wątpliwości, że będzie jeszcze drożej. Branża działa w bardzo zmiennych i niepewnych okolicznościach. Z jednej strony mniej inwestycji mieszkaniowych, z drugiej szczyt sezonu budowlanego i wysoka inflacja w branży. Jednak do robienia zapasów potrzebne są pieniądze, gotówka dostępna od ręki – na już. Rachunek jest bardzo prosty – styropian kupiony dzisiaj jest dużo droższy niż rok temu. Pieniądze trzeba więc wykopać choćby spod ziemi – mówi Marek Sikorski z Finea, firmy zajmującej się faktoringiem dla małych firm.
Inflacja zjadła ponad pół metra styropianu
Ceny materiałów izolacyjnych, w tym również styropianu, notują największe wzrosty od 2021 roku. I jest tak praktycznie z miesiąca na miesiąc. Ostatnie dane z sierpnia pokazały, że ceny izolacji termicznych wzrosły względem roku ubiegłego o 62 proc. W sierpniu zeszłego roku metr sześcienny styropianu kosztował średnio 180 zł. Teraz płaci się 253 zł. Zatem w tym roku za 180 zł, można kupić nie metr sześcienny, ale około połowy. Wprawdzie w tej chwili ceny styropianu się nieco ustabilizowały, ale wielu Polaków za wszelką cenę stara się ocieplić domy jeszcze przed zimą, więc nie wiadomo czy nie będzie kolejnych podwyżek.
W dodatku pojawia się jeszcze poważniejsze ryzyko – zupełny brak niektórych materiałów budowlanych. Skoro może brakować węgla czy dwutlenku węgla do produkcji żywności, to nie ma gwarancji, że nie zabraknie gazu to produkcji materiałów budowlanych.
Wybuduj teraz, zapłacimy po Wszystkich Świętych
Zleceniodawcy prac i równocześnie płatnicy faktur zazwyczaj nie biorą tego pod uwagę. Mają swoje problemy i za prace chcieliby zapłacić z opóźnieniem. Np. w przypadku komercyjnych inwestycji budowlanych woleliby płacić wtedy, kiedy te zaczną przynosić dochód.
– Branża budowlana od dawna działa w modelu odroczonych płatności. Niestety to, co kiedyś było przykrą, ale akceptowalną okolicznością, teraz staje się poważnym problemem. O ile wcześniej standardem było przyspieszanie płatności za faktury z odroczonym terminem płatności, to teraz praktycznie za każdym razem klient z branży budowlanej pyta o faktoring odwrotny. To znaczy, że chciałby, abyśmy sfinansowali również jego faktury za materiały budowlane, niezbędne do wykonania zleceń. Dla tych przedsiębiorców koszt udzielenia finansowania jest znacząco niższy niż wzrost cen materiałów przy tak wysokiej inflacji. Obecnie praktycznie każde kolejne zamówienie na materiały budowlane ma inną kalkulację. Oczywiście wyższą. Niektóre wyceny są aktualne tylko kilka godzin. Stąd pośpiech w zakupach na zapas – mówi Mateusz Skworonek z firmy faktoringowej eFaktor.
Odbiorcy usług budowlanych nie akceptują tańszych materiałów i gorszych zamienników. Te kosztują mniej i pozwalałyby w części uciec przed inflacją, ale inwestorzy i zleceniodawcy nie preferują takiego rozwiązania. W dodatku to niosłoby ryzyko konieczności poprawek i napraw gwarancyjnych. Nie ma zatem rady, trzeba kupować jak najszybciej i robić zapasy.
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