- W III kw. 2022 roku małe i średnie firmy wystawiały średnio po 19,5 faktury. To prawie o 4 mniej niż przed rokiem. Przedsiębiorcy mówią, że nie ma komu wystawiać faktur.
- To zapowiada jeszcze większe problemy w gospodarce. Medialne komunikaty w stylu „chyba będę musiał zamknąć firmę” realizują się już w praktyce.
- Dodatkowym problemem jest fakt, że przelewy za faktury, które są wystawione, docierają na konta dostawców z dużym opóźnieniem.
Według danych platformy faktura.pl, na której małe i średnie firmy wystawiają rocznie ponad 600 tys. faktur, w trzecim kwartale tego roku przedsiębiorcy z tego sektora wystawiali średnio 19,5 faktury na firmę. To o prawie 4 mniej niż w III kw. 2021 r. Spadek jest więc duży i wyraźny. Statystycznie mniejsza liczba wystawianych faktur oznacza oczywiście mniejsze przychody tych firm. Trudno byłoby zakładać, że pozostałym kontrahentom przedsiębiorcy wystawiają faktury na wyższe kwoty, takie które uzupełnią braki.
– Przez cały ubiegły rok średnia liczba faktur na firmę wahała się pomiędzy 20,2 a 23,4, przy czym najniższa średnia została zanotowana w pierwszym kwartale, kiedy wpływ na to mogły mieć czynniki sezonowe lub/i związane z lockdownami COVID. Od drugiego do czwartego kwartału średnia liczba faktur na firmę wynosiła 22 i ponad 23. W tym roku faktur jest jednak wyraźnie mniej, a w trzecim kwartale jest ich jeszcze mniej niż w drugim. Trend jest wyraźny, w dodatku oparty na dużej próbie. Może to oznaczać kłopoty małych firm, które potraciły część kontraktów lub zostały z ograniczoną liczbą zleceń od obecnych partnerów biznesowych – mówi Grzegorz Grodek, prezes faktura.pl.
Spadki w średniej liczbie wystawianych faktur widać w większości branż. Największe w informacji i komunikacji – o 8,1 (w porównaniu III kw. tego roku vs. III kw. zeszłego roku); w transporcie i gospodarce magazynowej – o 6,4; w przetwórstwie przemysłowym – o 6,2; w handlu hurtowym i detalicznym – o 5,4 i w edukacji – o 5,1 faktury mniej. Spadek widać też w branży budowlanej (średnio o 2 faktury). Za małymi firmami podobny spadek dotknie też duże firmy, bo MŚP to papierek lakmusowy całej gospodarki.
„Chyba będę musiał zamknąć firmę” – to właśnie się dzieje.
Jesienią i zimą kłopoty mają firmy z branży gastronomicznej czy piekarnie. Ich zyskowność zabija drożejący prąd i gaz. Również ogólna atmosfera „wszechobecnej drożyzny” nie zachęca konsumentów do częstego stołowania się w restauracjach. Oszczędzamy też na noclegach, więc kłopoty ma także branża hotelarska – według danych Izby Gospodarczej Hotelarstwa Polskiego na okres świąteczno-noworoczny większość obiektów ma o 30% mniej rezerwacji niż w zeszłym roku.
Drożejące gwałtownie paliwo, a szczególnie ropa, pod znakiem zapytania stawia sens funkcjonowania wielu małych firm transportowych, które tracą płynność z dużą prędkością.
– Część takich podmiotów rzeczywiście upada i zawiesza działalność. Nie kończy się już tylko na zapowiedziach w stylu „chyba będę musiał zamknąć firmę”. Mniej firm, to mniej odbiorców usług i produktów, spada więc liczba wystawianych faktur. Warto też zaznaczyć, że nie ma przestrzeni do tego, żeby mniejszą liczbą przychodów wynikających z mniejszej liczby faktur uzupełnić, zwiększając kwoty pozostałych faktur – Grzegorz Grodek z faktura.pl.
Opinie eksperta faktura.pl znajdują odzwierciedlenie w danych Centralnego Ośrodka Danych Gospodarczych (COIG) – w pierwszych dwóch kwartałach 2022 r. 197 firm w Polsce ogłosiło upadłość, a dodatkowo 862 było zmuszone zdecydować się na postępowanie restrukturyzacyjne. Razem to znacznie ponad 1000 przedsiębiorstw.
Według CEIDG (Centralna Ewidencja i Informacja o Działalności Gospodarczej) w okresie styczeń-wrzesień 2022 r. z rejestrów CEIDG zniknęło blisko 147 tys. jednoosobowych działalności gospodarczych, o prawie 1/4 więcej niż w tym samym okresie ubiegłego roku, a z KRS wyrejestrowano 16,1 tys. spółek (wzrost o 8,8 proc.).
To niestety dopiero początek – w drugiej połowie roku upadłości będzie znacznie więcej.
To nie jest dobry czas na długie terminy płatności
Dodatkowym problemem jest fakt, że faktury, które jeszcze są wystawiane, płacone są z opóźnieniem. Firmy, mając do zapłacenia wysokie rachunki za gaz czy prąd, do tego zobowiązania do ZUS i Urzędu Skarbowego oraz płace pracowników, faktury od swoich kontrahentów chciałyby płacić jak najpóźniej. W trzecim kwartale tego roku średni termin na zapłatę faktury wystawionej na platformie faktura.pl wyniósł 13,1 dnia. Oznacza to, że część przedsiębiorców czeka znacznie dłużej. Tradycyjnie branżą z najdłuższym terminem zapłaty jest transport i gospodarka magazynowa. Tam średnia to 20,5 dnia.
– Często funkcjonuje tu zasada: towar odbieram dzisiaj, płacę za miesiąc lub dwa. Niestety taki model rozliczania pociąga za sobą kłopoty kolejnych firm i wywołuje efekt kuli śniegowej. Opóźnienia w płatnościach przenoszą się na kolejne podmioty. Najsłabsze ogniwa pękają, a firma upada. Teraz naprawdę trzeba być ostrożnym, trzeba pilnować płynności, walczyć o gotówkę, zabezpieczać sobie przelew jak najszybciej po wykonaniu zlecenia. Inflacja bije rekordy, wszystko drożeje, trzeba robić zapasy i pilnować płynności – mówi Marek Sikorski z Finea.
Z analiz faktura.pl wynika, że firmy zaczęły szukać oszczędności na nowych polach. Wiele mikrofirm rezygnuje z usług firm trzecich na poczet automatyzacji i cyfryzacji procesów – widać to w popycie na księgowość automatyczną. Firmy mogą wykorzystać kryzys do wzmocnienia się i optymalizacji kosztowych, dzięki czemu w lepszych czasach zarobią więcej.
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