Komentarz do raportu Związku Przedsiębiorstw Finansowych

Związek Przedsiębiorstw Finansowych w Polsce przygotował raport Wielkość polskiego rynku wierzytelności. I kwartał 2020. Opracowanie zawiera syntetyczne wyniki projektu badawczego, jaki ZPF prowadzi od 2011 roku wśród Członków ZPF z branży zarządzania wierzytelnościami i jest jednym tak kompleksowym branżowym raportem.

Najważniejsze liczby (pełne dane w raporcie pdf)

Łączna wartość nominalna obsługiwanych wierzytelności 110,17 mld PLN +5,1% kw./kw.

Łączna liczba obsługiwanych wierzytelności 16,06 mln szt. +4,1% kw./kw.

Przeciętna wartość jednej obsługiwanej wierzytelności 6,86 tys. PLN +0,9% kw./kw.

Łączna wartość wierzytelności kupionych w I kwartale 2020 roku przez firmy zarządzające wierzytelnościami do obsługi w imieniu własnym 97,44 mln PLN -53,28% kw./kw.

Łączna wartość wierzytelności przyjętych w I kwartale 2020 roku przez firmy zarządzające wierzytelnościami do obsługi na zlecenie 2,91 mld PLN +22,56% kw./kw.

Komentuje Piotr Maciągowski Prezes Zarządu e-Kancelaria Grupa Prawno-Finansowa sp. z o.o.

Firma jest członkiem Związku Przedsiębiorstw Finansowych i brała udział w przygotowaniu raportu.

Kończące się półrocze dla branży windykacyjnej to czas drastycznych zmian okoliczności funkcjonowania. Były to zarówno zdarzenia pozytywnie wpływające na biznes jak i mocno negatywne. Rok zaczął się dobrze – jak pokazują dane na koniec pierwszego kwartału kluczowe wskaźniki były na plusie – wartość obsługiwanych wierzytelności wyniosła 110,2 mld PLN, czyli o 5,1% więcej niż w ostatnim kwartale 2019 i o 17,2% więcej porównując pierwsze kwartały rok do roku. O ponad 4% (kwartał do kwartału) wzrosła liczba obsługiwanych wierzytelności – do ponad 16 mln sztuk.

Niestety pod koniec marca, zanim jeszcze skończył się pierwszy kwartał, gospodarkę dotknął potężny kryzys wywołany przez koronawirusa. W pierwszym okresie pandemii przedsiębiorcy tłumnie ruszyli do firm windykacyjnych, żeby odzyskać swoje stare długi. Wzrost zleceń windykacji długów w marcu w stosunku do lutego sięgał kilkuset procent. W mojej firmie w pewnym okresie wynosił on 375%. Mikroprzedsiębiorcy, którzy wcześniej w obawie o pogorszenie relacji biznesowych nie egzekwowali kategorycznie starych długów, po wybuchu pandemii wyciągali z dna szuflad zapomniane faktury.  Wtedy wciąż były branże, które pozytywnie reagowały na propozycje polubownego porozumienia w sprawie długu. 

W kolejnym etapie nadeszło załamanie – epidemia zachwiała podstawami gospodarki i wprowadziła wiele zamieszania i niepewności w poczynania biznesu. Widać to także po zmieniającej się z miesiąca na miesiąc liczbie zleceń windykacyjnych. W kwietniu takich wniosków było o 21% mniej (niż w marcu), wzrosła za to łączna wartość przedmiotu sporu, czyli kwota zlecona do windykacji. Maj to znowu wzrost liczby zleceń windykacji długów – o 27%. Wygląda na to, że mały i średni biznes szuka teraz w zaległych zobowiązaniach pieniędzy na ponowny start po odmrożeniu.

Pogorszenie sytuacji gospodarczej, wywołane lockdownem, przełożyło się także na efektywność spłat. Krótkoterminowo pogorszyło spłacalność, głównie w sektorze długów osób fizycznych. Początkowo powodem były wezwania do pozostania w domu i strach osób starszych (którzy rzadziej funkcjonują online) przed wychodzeniem z domu. Istotnym czynnikiem jest ciągle obawa przed utratą pracy i krótkoterminowe kumulowanie środków na tzw. „czarną godzinę”. Niestety taka strategia powoduje jeszcze większe kłopoty i koszty (np. komornicze i sądowe), jeśli dłużnik ucieka od porozumienia w mediacjach. Długi przecież nie znikną podczas pandemii.

Kolejna przyczyna jest prozaiczna – to okresowy brak wizyt windykatorów terenowych w czasie ostrych restrykcji.

Początkowo lockdown zmniejszył także zdolności operacyjne firmy windykacyjnych, głównie ze względu na ograniczenia w bezpośrednim kontakcie. Ten czynnik przestaje już jednak działać. Poza tym wiele czynności prowadzimy z wykorzystaniem narzędzi telefonicznych i internetowych. Z pewnością windykatorzy stawiający na bardziej bezpośrednie, konserwatywne metody mają teraz z przyczyn obiektywnych mniejszą efektywność.

Załamanie gospodarcze, które w większym czy mniejszym stopniu nas czeka z pewnością zwiększy liczbę niespłacanych wierzytelności. Z drugiej strony wielu małych przedsiębiorców będzie bardzo potrzebowało zwrotu pieniędzy, które im się należą za wykonaną pracę czy usługi. W wielu przypadkach będzie to wręcz decydowało o przetrwaniu – bądź nie – wielu małych, rodzinnych biznesów.

Podaż długu nie będzie malała, a wręcz rosław naszych prognozach wzrosty są dwucyfrowe. Biznes w czasie epidemii wyraźnie odczuł już „na własnej skórze” jak ważna jest płynność finansowa i zaczyna bardziej racjonalnie podchodzić do opóźnianych płatności. Przedsiębiorcy nie tracą już czasu czekając i myśląc „może jednak zapłaci” tylko zlecając sprawy do windykacji specjalistom, nawet przy niewielkim opóźnieniu.

Długoterminowo, jeśli gospodarka zahaczy o recesję i liczba przedsiębiorstw znacznie się zmniejszy podaż długów może zmaleć, ale to absolutnie czarny scenariusz. Nie tylko dla windykatorów, ale dla całej gospodarki. Trudno teraz prognozować marże w najbliższych miesiącach, bo niemal w każdym tygodniu docierają do nas sprzeczne prognozy gospodarcze. Można jednak powiedzieć, że na branżę windykacyjną działają podobne czynniki, jak na inne dziedziny biznesu. Tu także można oczekiwać ruchów konsolidacyjnych.

e-Kancelaria Grupa Prawno – Finansowa sp. z o.o., jest członkiem Związku Przedsiębiorstw Finansowych (ZPF). Prowadzi windykację na wszystkich etapach: monitoringu, polubownym, sądowym i egzekucyjnym. Działa na zlecenie firm pożyczkowych, a także branż TSL, HORECA oraz budownictwa.

192 Replies to “Komentarz do raportu Związku Przedsiębiorstw Finansowych

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