Płaca minimalna w górę, firmy w dół

  • Plany rządzących zakładają zwiększenie pensji minimalnej o prawie 78 proc. w ciągu pięciu lat, a w przyszłym roku do 2600 zł.
  • Wzrost płacy minimalnej to jednak duże zagrożenie dla firm, które mogą mieć problem z utrzymaniem płynności przy tak gwałtownym skoku wynagrodzeń.
  • „Droższa praca” spowoduje wzrost kosztów działania firm, które będą jeszcze bardziej intensywnie poszukiwać kapitału i łatać dziury finansowaniem zewnętrznym np. faktoringiem.

Zgodnie z rządową propozycją minimalne wynagrodzenie za pracę w 2020 r. wyniesie 2 600 zł. To wzrost o 350 zł, czyli o 15,6 proc. w stosunku do 2019 r., bo obecnie najniższa płaca wynosi 2 250 zł. Minimalna stawka godzinowa w 2020 roku ma wynieść 17 zł (obecnie to 14,70 zł.). W 2020 r. minimalne wynagrodzenie będzie stanowić 49,7 proc. prognozowanego przeciętnego wynagrodzenia w gospodarce narodowej. Plany rządzących zakładają, że w ciągu pięciu lat płaca minimalna wzrośnie o prawie 78 proc.

Tak wysoki poziom minimalnego wynagrodzenia za pracę będzie miał pozytywny wpływ na sytuację gospodarstw domowych. Eksperci uważają jednak, że będzie miał negatywny wpływ na firmy. Duży i drastyczny skok kosztów wynagrodzeń, może być niebezpieczny dla całej gospodarki, w szczególności dla małych firm.

– Nie ma wątpliwości, że tak gwałtowny skok płacy minimalnej i generalnie wielkości środków jakie firma musi przeznaczyć na wynagrodzenia „nie rozejdzie się po kościach”. Niestety nie przetrwa go wiele małych firm. Już teraz miewają problemy z utrzymaniem płynności finansowej, bo z płatnościami zalegają im odbiorcy ich towarów i usług. W dominującym w polskiej gospodarce modelu wielomiesięcznego odraczania płatności firmy, które w porę nie zapewnią sobie zastępczego finansowania zewnętrznego mogą zderzyć się ze ścianą wysokich kosztów wynagrodzenia i polec – mówi Joanna Rembelska Dyrektor ds. Ryzyka w eFaktor.

Niektóre branże oberwą bardziej niż inne

Wg danych GUS w Polsce, co siódma osoba zarabia pensję niższą niż minimalna. W przemyśle spośród 2 mln 719 tys. pracowników w 2018 r. 228 tys. jest zatrudnionych w zakładach, w których przeciętne wynagrodzenie jest niższe niż 3 tys. zł. 

Są branże, w których czynnik związany z kosztami pracy ma szczególnie duże znaczenie, a gwałtowny wzrost wynagrodzeń może doprowadzić do poważnych perturbacji. Są to usługi czy budownictwo.

Gwałtowny wzrost minimalnej płacy ograniczy konkurencję rynkową, może też spowodować, że firmy zaczną uciekać z wynagrodzeniami w szarą strefę.

Tak znaczący i postępujący nieprzerwanie wzrost płacy minimalnej istotnie utrudni też dostęp do rynku pracowników, dla których płaca minimalna była ustanowiona (tj. mających krótki staż, niskie umiejętności czy specyficzne wymagania co do trybu świadczenia pracy – np. większa tolerancja pracodawcy na absencję). Prace wykonywane przez takich pracowników będą cedowane na osoby o wyższych kwalifikacjach lub outsoursowane do firm jednoosobowych zmuszonych do tolerowania zapłaty poniżej kalkulacji stawki minimalnej.

– Wyższe koszty pracy spowodują, że wiele firm nie będzie miało pieniędzy na nowe projekty, inwestycje czy rozwój. Tej dziury raczej nie zasypią banki, które są ostrożne w udzielaniu kredytów small biznesowi. Pozostają drogie pożyczki w firmach pozabankowych lub faktoring – te usługi akurat tanieją i dla coraz większej liczby przedsiębiorców stają się alternatywą w przypadku rosnących kosztów działalności i potrzeb kapitałowych – mówi Joanna Rembelska Dyrektor ds. Ryzyka w eFaktor.

„Pensje muszą rosnąć, mamy rynek pracownika, ale będziemy gonić kraje Europy Zachodniej pod względem wynagrodzeń” – to głosy powtarzane ze strony rządowej. Eksperci uważają jednak, że Polskie firmy w wielu branżach dogoniły już swoją konkurencję z Zachodniej Europy, teraz jednak mogą znów zacząć od nich odstawać.

366 Replies to “Płaca minimalna w górę, firmy w dół

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